# Track Global

Updated: 2026-10-05

## Current coordinates

- Structural: Phase 1C — advanced sovereign fragility.
- Tactical: early Stage 3 — fragmented intervention.
- Transition: repeated official responses activate tactical Stage 3; structural Phase 2A remains unconfirmed.

## Coordinate model

`Phase` is reserved for the structural multi-year regime. `Stage` describes the tactical sequence observed over weeks or months.

| Tactical stage | Description | Transition signal |
|---|---|---|
| Stage 1 | Stress and repricing | Stress reaches sovereigns, credit or funding. |
| Stage 2A | Early fragility | Long-end pressure persists and spreads. |
| Stage 2B | Advanced fragility / rates-led divergence | Bond dysfunction, credit break or repeated intervention. |
| Stage 3 | Repeated intervention across prices, duration, funding or demand | Scale, persistence and an administered long financing cost. |
| Stage 4 | Expansion after stabilization | Intervention becomes normalized or reignites inflation/excess. |

Tactical Stage 3 does not by itself confirm structural Phase 2A. Even repeated but fragmented operations may be interventionist without removing US long-rate price discovery persistently.

## Monthly dashboard

- Energy: Brent, WTI, TTF, Henry Hub, routes and refining capacity.
- Sovereign curve: UST 2Y/10Y/30Y, 2s10s, 5s30s, gilts and Bunds.
- Fiscal risk: term premium, auction tails, bid-to-cover, dealer take-down and foreign official demand.
- Volatility/funding: MOVE, VIX, Treasury liquidity, SOFR/repo and FRA-OIS.
- Credit: HY OAS, IG OAS, defaults, private credit and bank lending standards.
- Japan/carry: USDJPY, JPY crosses, JGB 10Y/20Y/30Y and BOJ policy.
- Inflation/real yields: 5Y/10Y breakevens, 10Y TIPS and expectation surveys.
- Dollar/reserves: DXY and FX-adjusted COFER shares.
- Gold: price versus DXY and real yields, official tonnes and price-adjusted reserve share.
- Real economy: PMIs, trade, Baltic Dry, employment and participation.
- Real-asset rotation: energy, metals, infrastructure, agriculture and strategic producers.

## Master signals

1. Yield suppression: long yields stop rising while breakevens remain elevated, preferably with an observable institutional mechanism.
2. Gold decoupling: gold rises despite a firm DXY and/or high real yields, reinforced by official physical purchases.
3. Credit/funding stress: HY OAS, MOVE and funding measures rise together.
4. Japan carry repricing: sudden yen strength coincides with risk-asset weakness.
5. Long-end fiscal stress: the long end rises while the front end is contained and auction quality deteriorates.
6. Energy coordination breakdown: oil remains elevated despite weak growth because of routes, refining or producer coordination.

## Recovered checkpoints

### 2026-05-18

Tactical Stage 2: fragility, not collapse. Rates firm, volatility higher, Japan fragile and shadow credit under observation. Bitcoin still behaved as a risk asset. A gold correction did not invalidate the monetary thesis.

### 2026-07-23

Tactical Stage 2B was formally identified. Snapshot: UST 10Y 4.63%; UST 30Y 5.13%; 10Y real yield 2.37%; 10Y term premium approximately 0.78%; 2s10s +36 bp; 10Y breakeven 2.28%; HY OAS 2.68%; IG OAS 0.78%; VIX 16.64 at the July 22 close.

These are historical values, not live market data.

### 2026-10-05

The tactical diagnosis advances to **early Stage 3 — fragmented intervention**.

Confirmed facts:

- the UST 10Y reached 5.34% on October 1 while Treasury buybacks were active but below their USD 6 billion cap;
- the Fed raised the short rate to 3.75%–4.00% without acting on long duration;
- the Bank of England halted long-gilt sales, reduced QT and retained GBP 120 billion of long gilts;
- the BOJ raised its policy rate to 1.25%, reduced ordinary JGB purchases to JPY 2.3 trillion per month and Japan reported no FX intervention from August 27 through September 28;
- the G7 coordinated a 100 million barrel release rather than imposing diesel export bans;
- Middle East crude exports recovered to 16.328 million bpd, still below the prewar 19.513 million bpd.

Inference: policy action is now repeated across duration, FX, issuance, regulation and physical energy, satisfying the tactical transition out of Stage 2B. Phase 2A remains unconfirmed because the US long rate is still market-determined and the buyback tool has not shown scale, intent or effective yield suppression.

Pending evidence: comparable monthly MOVE, HY/IG OAS, breakeven, real-yield and term-premium data; 10Y/30Y auction quality; post-November buyback renewal; FIMA use and Japanese Treasury holdings; execution of G7 energy releases; official gold purchases and FX-adjusted COFER.

## Update rule

Do not react to price alone. Track regime progression with metrics. Position for phase transitions, not events.

Sources:
- https://chatgpt.com/canvas/shared/6a871841e2608191ae3721091ce04e4d
- https://chatgpt.com/share/6a87189d-d6e8-83e9-91d0-2a56f3def0bd